Idzik's state of the team

51 - So I did a little research on all of the Rod Graves drafts.  Basically I looked at first round picks and cited players chosen in later rounds that were good players.  

1997 - He drafted Tom Knight, CB.  A bust.  He passed on Warrick Dunn and Tony Gonzalez taken a few picks later.  In the second he took Jake Plummer, an NFL starter with an up and down career, mainly in Denver.  In the third Frank Middleton, an OL who had a decent career.  Grade F.  

1998 - Andre Wadsworth - passed on Charles Woodson with the next pick.  Wadsworth has been considered a bust.  Later, he drafted Corey Chavous, a decent player.  Grade F.  

1999 - David Boston.  A dominant WR, but he had issues off the field as I recall.  The rest of the draft was awful.  D.  

2000 - Thomas Jones, excellent player for a long time with Bears and of course the Jets.  Rest of the draft forgettable.  Grade B-.

2001 - One of his better drafts - 1.  Leonard Davis - OL.  2.  Kyle VandenBosch 3. Adrian Wilson.  Grade B+  

2002 - Wendell Bryant - Bust.   Later Josh McCown.  Rest of the draft, poor.  Grade F.

2003 - Two first round picks, Bryant Johnson (Bust) and Calvin Pace.  Later he takes Anquan Boldin, a great player.  Grade B+

2004 - His best draft -  Larry Fitzgerald with the 3rd overall pick.  Dansby in the second round.  Darnell Dockett in the 3rd round.  A+

2005 - Antrel Rolle.  The rest of the draft was poor.  D.

2006 - Matt Leinert - Major Bust.  (Jets took Ferguson and Mangold in this draft).   Rest of the draft was just as bad.  F

2007 - Levi Brown, OL, Alan Branch DT and Steve Breaston WR.  All starters for a some period of time.   C+

2008 - 1st Round - DRC and Calais Campbell,  B+

2009 - 1st Round  - Chris Wells, RB  (Bust)  The rest of the draft was just as bad. F

2010 - Dan Williams DT.  Daryl Washington, Andre Roberts later.  C-

2011 - Patrick Peterson - Excellent, pick.  The rest of the draft was poor.  B-

2012 - Michael Floyd.  The rest of the draft was poor.  C

That was his last draft.  So, all toll, he had in my estimation, 3 B+ Drafts, 5 F Graded drafts, 1 A+ draft, 2 D Drafts, 2 B- Drafts, and 2 C- Drafts, and 1 C+ draft.  

Which means - 4 drafts of B+ or higher, 7 Drafts of either D or F, 3 C drafts, and 2 B- drafts.  

Of these approximately 21 players in my estimation were NFL starters.  3 Potential HOF players in Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Patrick Peterson.  That is over a 15 year period.  I am estimating here, but assuming one pick in every round, he drafted 105 players over that time, 21 of which were solid players.  That is about 20% success rate.  

And in the first round, his grade is a far better, about 8-15 drafts producing productive players.  His track suggests he has drafted poorly in the later rounds in all but two drafts.  

I would say his track record on personnel is very mixed.  Sounds familiar..sounds a lot like the Idzik regime thus far.  12 picks last year and only two players so far.  One great pick in Richardson, then two picks in Milliner and Pryor that have question marks.  Very up and down.  

I am not saying his record is poor, but I wouldn't say he is head and shoulders above any other GM in the league by a long shot.  If he was so good, the Cardinals would not have fired him.

I think it is difficult to judge anyone in a vacuum, particularly a GM who can look awesome with the right coach or QB or like hell with the wrong situation. Just for grins how about looking at various GMs' performance relative to their coaches, ownership, QB etc. Yes I understand that most GMs hire the coach, draft the QB, etc. Some like Idzik are hamstrung with poor holdover head coaches, dire cap situations, directives by ownership, holdover scouting departments, bad QBs, etc. Remember also when evaluating Idzik's first draft that it was done with Tanny's scouting department that had produced virtually nothing (excluding Mo and Snacks/FA) in the previous 4 drafts.

my point on Graves is that we have a pure personnel man in our front office who has had success. I could pick apart the last several drafts of Bill Polian with the Colts and how he left that team woefully thin. we could also look at the first couple of drafts Parcells had here when he picked his own groceries. parcells passed on Walter jones and Orlando Pace and drafted Farrior. Farrior was a "bust" for years until developing into a pro bowl lb(unfortunately for the Steelers). All I was trying to say is that the cries for a new gm with a pure personnel background doesn't guarantee anything. I posted a link on the previous page by TOJ reviewing Idzik's performance thus far. His drafts are on par with Trent Balke of the 49er's through two seasons. Draft picks need time to be fully evaluated.



In Tannenbaum's second year as gm in 2007, we started 1-8. did you want him fired then? heck, at least he had his own hand picked coach.

Old#15 wrote:I think it is difficult to judge anyone in a vacuum, particularly a GM who can look awesome with the right coach or QB or like hell with the wrong situation.  Just for grins how about looking at various GMs' performance relative to their coaches, ownership, QB etc.  Yes I understand that most GMs hire the coach, draft the QB, etc.  Some like Idzik are hamstrung with poor holdover head coaches, dire cap situations, directives by ownership, holdover scouting departments, bad QBs, etc.  Remember also when evaluating Idzik's first draft that it was done with Tanny's scouting department that had produced virtually nothing (excluding Mo and Snacks/FA) in the previous 4 drafts.

Excellent points. It's such a crapshoot drafting most QB's and trying to pair them with the right coach and system. Some very smart guys have made big mistakes in the draft. Examples are endless.

Does anyone think the GM of the Steelers in the 1970's knew for a fact that Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw would've become what they were? I don't think anyone could've predicted that, and anyone who says they could've predicted that is lying through their teeth.

Old#15 - you are absolutely right. It takes an entire organization working together. Which is precisely my point. Everyone needs to be on the same page.

51 - Again, I would resist the temptation to use Polian as an example. It's just not a good argument. His track record building teams and picking players is amongst the very best in the history of the game. His last few drafts certainly do not reflect the entire body of work.

With respect to your other points - You made the comparison to the 49ers. Are you talking about Baalke's first two years, or his most recent drafts?

As far as Graves is concerned, he was a GM for 15 seasons, again with a very mixed record of success. So you made the point about how we have this great personnel man in the front office who drafted these great players. I wanted to see if he was truly some personnel wizard or some one hit wonder. He is neither. What his record shows is that he had success with some first round picks and drafts poorly in the later rounds. That is a very mixed record. Nothing great. Average, if that. If he was Ozzie Newsome or Bill Polian or Ron Wolf, or Ernie Accorsi, or Bill Walsh, he would still be there. Or he would have been a leading GM candidate for another team.


With respect to Idzik's drafts - Again, I agree it takes time to fully evaluate a draft, and I have made that point several times - We know that this team is 1-7 after 8 weeks. We know the quality of play on the field is poor. We know Idzik left gaping holes at WR and CB, when our schedule demanded strength at those positions in order to compete this year. We know that virtually every draft pick made by Idzik, Graves, Bradway, or whoever will not even get on the field. That's what we know.

People can sing here about potential until the cows come home, but the fact of the matter is, no matter how you slice it, this team sucks. And, it's getting worse. And that is on Idzik's watch. It is on Graves, Bradway, Rex, and everyone else in the organization. But Idzik is the GM, he put this mess together.

I really don't understand what the upside is to keeping this guy? We have already seen the downside. Do you really have confidence at this point that he is the right guy to turn this organization around?

Somebody please explain to me what the factual basis is for that level of confidence? Because I am having hard time seeing it. The only factual point that anyone can make is that he didn't pick the coach. Well, that's true. But, again, I ask, what coach worth his salt is going to come here with him as the GM? I just don't see it. The risk is too high. Why go somewhere when the GM could legitimately be gone in a year. Just blow the whole thing up and start over. New GM, new coach, New QB.

I am having a hard time understanding the love for Idzik when he doesn't deserve it. His track record is mixed AT BEST. His track record is 1-7 with a very bad football team that lacks talent at multiple positions. That is what I see.

On Polian, I NEVER said it reflected his body of work. What I said was that even having a strong track record and being a pure personnel evaluator, you're going to make mistakes. I also said that his run as Colts gm was aided by luck. If Parcells gave Archie the assurance that he would've taken Peyton in 1997, Polian would've taken Leaf(to this day, Polian says it was a tough choice between Manning/Leaf in 1998), and all the rb's/wr's he drafted wouldn't have saved that situation from becoming a disaster. It's also my opinion that he neglected the backup qb position behind Manning and it finally came back to bite him. And, yes, his last several drafts were subpar.




the overall point being that there are numerous factors to consider when evaluating a gm some of which are completely out of his control. look at the Colts now. No one calls their gm an idiot for trading a first round pick for Trent Richardson, because he has Luck. Now, I could've been named the Colts gm in 2012 and handed in the draft card with Luck's name on it too. It's too soon to judge what kind of gm Idzik will or won't be. I'm hoping Woody drowns out the noise, keeps him, and allows him to pick his own HC.

football51 wrote:my point on Graves is that we have a pure personnel man in our front office who has had success. I could pick apart the last several drafts of Bill Polian with the Colts and how he left that team woefully thin. we could also look at the first couple of drafts Parcells had here when he picked his own groceries. parcells passed on Walter jones and Orlando Pace and drafted Farrior. Farrior was a "bust" for years until developing into a pro bowl lb(unfortunately for the Steelers). All I was trying to say is that the cries for a new gm with a pure personnel background doesn't guarantee anything. I posted a link on the previous page by TOJ reviewing Idzik's performance thus far. His drafts are on par with Trent Balke of the 49er's through two seasons. Draft picks need time to be fully evaluated.



In Tannenbaum's second year as gm in 2007, we started 1-8. did you want him fired then? heck, at least he had his own hand picked coach.

Oh I did not address your question on Tannenbaum. Tannenbaum decided to draft for quality over quantity and it worked. The Jets were one of the worst teams in the league when took over. And he drafted extremely well when Mangini was the coach. My recollection is that he drafted Ferguson, Mangold and Leon Washington in his first draft. In 2007, he drafted Revis and David Harris. That's five Pro Bowl players and long time starters, including two All Pros in his first two drafts, and one likely HOF player in Revis. You really want to compare that to Idzik's drafts?

And no I didn't want Tannenbaum fired because you see that he was putting talented players on the field and building the team. I thought at the time that Tannenbaum did an exceptional job his first few years. His approach for quality over quantity worked for a number of years. Then, it stopped working. But he built the team that wen to 2 AFC championship games in a very short time. And is started with that foundation in 2006 and 2007.

football51 wrote:On Polian, I NEVER said it reflected his body of work. What I said was that even having a strong track record and being a pure personnel evaluator, you're going to make mistakes. I also said that his run as Colts gm was aided by luck. If Parcells gave Archie the assurance that he would've taken Peyton in 1997, Polian would've taken Leaf(to this day, Polian says it was a tough choice between Manning/Leaf in 1998), and all the rb's/wr's he drafted wouldn't have saved that situation from becoming a disaster. It's also my opinion that he neglected the backup qb position behind Manning and it finally came back to bite him. And, yes, his last several drafts were subpar.




the overall point being that there are numerous factors to consider when evaluating a gm some of which are completely out of his control. look at the Colts now. No one calls their gm an idiot for trading a first round pick for Trent Richardson, because he has Luck. Now, I could've been named the Colts gm in 2012 and handed in the draft card with Luck's name on it too. It's too soon to judge what kind of gm Idzik will or won't be. I'm hoping Woody drowns out the noise, keeps him, and allows him to pick his own HC.

So the basis of your argument for keeping Idzik is that it's too early to tell what kind of GM he will be at this point. So there is no factual basis for your decision, only that in your estimation he has not had enough time. Does that same hold true for Geno Smith? He has been here almost as long. He has a track record on the field. Does he get more time too?

I see an unprepared, undisciplined, at times stupid football team that gave away games against the Packers, Lions, Bears, and Pats and went toe to toe with the best team in the AFC (Denver). You can't do that with no talent or a putrid roster. You CAN go 1-7 playing careless, stupid , turnover, penalty filled football.



If Idzik stays, he's not going anywhere after 2015. The new coach will be told that. I'm sure Quinn will have no issues.



The TOJ link on Idzik track record with references to the 49er's is on the previous page I believe.



So, let's fire Idzik, and hire a new gm. If we don't land a Wolf/Newsome type, when do we fire that guy? What if there are no franchise qb's for this gm to aquire? Does he get two years? Three? John Scneider went 7-9 in his first two years as Seahawks gm when the NFC West was the worst division in football. He went through Tavaris Jackson, Matt Flynn, and charlie Whitehurst. He signed a washed up Braylon Edwards and TO to fill gaps at wr. What did he show anyone after those first two seasons that made people think they would be where they are today?

Smith has two years left on his contract. He'll be here next year. If he sees the field or not will depend upon what he shows during the offseason/preseason.


Let's just fire everybody and when things don't magically click for the next guy, we can just do it all over again. Want to look at Belichick draft picks next?



I might have missed it, but did you want to fire tannenbaum when we started 1-8 his second year? That was the year he and Mangini put Pete Kendall in the rookie dorms in camp then traded him away, we had no RT, etc.

Ok 51, so that's your positive scenario. Here's the downside risk - This team stays a 5-11. 6-10 type of team for another two years. Then what? He gets fired anyway, we are starting over and then you are rebuilding again. If you are Woody Johnson, why take that risk? Start the rebuilding process completely now. Why put the fans through that? What is the point? Go out and hire the best GM candidate on the market, attract a big time coach and start over.

So.......... did Tannenbaum forget how to draft in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012. Also, I remember reading on our old board that Brick was a bust his first two seasons. He's too skinny. He'll never gain weight. But, your're right, he developed. i'd like to see if idzik's players develop too. A lot of which haven't taken the field yet. What Pro Bowl did David Harris play in?


Also, the fact that Tannenbaum traded away so many picks, is the reason why we lacked depth in 2011 and 2012. His quality over quantity approach sure didn't work in 2008, 2009, or 2012. like I said, everyone makes mistakes.

LIJETFAN wrote:Ok 51, so that's your positive scenario.  Here's the downside risk - This team stays a 5-11. 6-10 type of team for another two years.  Then what?  He gets fired anyway, we are starting over and then you are rebuilding again.   If you are Woody Johnson, why take that risk?  Start the rebuilding process completely now.  Why put the fans through that?  What is the point?  Go out and hire the best GM candidate on the market, attract a big time coach and start over.  

All the gm candidates will be first timers just like when we hired Idzik. Also, according to the media, Quinn is one of the hot coaching candidates. He's close with Idzik. Who are these " big time coaches" you speak of?

football51 wrote:Smith has two years left on his contract. He'll be here next year. If he sees the field or not will depend upon what he shows during the offseason/preseason.


Let's just fire everybody and when things don't magically click for the next guy, we can just do it all over again. Want to look at Belichick draft picks next?



I might have missed it, but did you want to fire tannenbaum when we started 1-8 his second year? That was the year he and Mangini put Pete Kendall in the rookie dorms in camp then traded him away, we had no RT, etc.

I responded to your Tannenbaum question earlier.

Again, I wouldn't use Belichick as example. They own the division every year. They have been to multiple Super Bowls. And the Patriots attract the top quality free agents that the Jets do not attract. Who cares who he drafts, he wins year in and year out. They don't rebuild, they retool. Bad comparison.

football51 wrote:

LIJETFAN wrote:Ok 51, so that's your positive scenario.  Here's the downside risk - This team stays a 5-11. 6-10 type of team for another two years.  Then what?  He gets fired anyway, we are starting over and then you are rebuilding again.   If you are Woody Johnson, why take that risk?  Start the rebuilding process completely now.  Why put the fans through that?  What is the point?  Go out and hire the best GM candidate on the market, attract a big time coach and start over.  

All the gm candidates will be first timers just like when we hired Idzik. Also, according to the media, Quinn is one of the hot coaching candidates. He's close with Idzik. Who are these " big time coaches" you speak of?

Ok 51 you win. Let's go with Idzik and revisit this conversation in a couple of years. I'm sure you're right, he's the next Ron Wolf.

LIJETFAN wrote:

football51 wrote:Smith has two years left on his contract. He'll be here next year. If he sees the field or not will depend upon what he shows during the offseason/preseason.


Let's just fire everybody and when things don't magically click for the next guy, we can just do it all over again. Want to look at Belichick draft picks next?



I might have missed it, but did you want to fire tannenbaum when we started 1-8 his second year? That was the year he and Mangini put Pete Kendall in the rookie dorms in camp then traded him away, we had no RT, etc.

I responded to your Tannenbaum question earlier.  

Again, I wouldn't use Belichick as example.  They own the division every year.  They have been to multiple Super Bowls.  And the Patriots attract the top quality free agents that the Jets do not attract.  Who cares who he drafts, he wins year in and year out.   They don't rebuild, they retool.  Bad comparison.  

no, it's not. They lucked into a HOF qb. that's why they are who they are. Years ago, when Inside the NFL was still on HBO, Scott Pioli was a guest and he talked about the 2000 draft. He said that Belichick wanted to draft Tim Ratay, but Charlie Weis liked Brady. pioli said that he told Belichick that "it's only a sixth round pick. let Charlie get the guy he likes." Luck played the defing role in the Pats success not some genius personnel guru or a long list of quality drafts. If Ratay gets drafted, Mo Lewis takes out Bledsoe, Belichick doesn't finish out that 2001 season. Like i said, there are things that occur based on dumb luck.

LIJETFAN wrote:

football51 wrote:

LIJETFAN wrote:Ok 51, so that's your positive scenario.  Here's the downside risk - This team stays a 5-11. 6-10 type of team for another two years.  Then what?  He gets fired anyway, we are starting over and then you are rebuilding again.   If you are Woody Johnson, why take that risk?  Start the rebuilding process completely now.  Why put the fans through that?  What is the point?  Go out and hire the best GM candidate on the market, attract a big time coach and start over.  

All the gm candidates will be first timers just like when we hired Idzik. Also, according to the media, Quinn is one of the hot coaching candidates. He's close with Idzik. Who are these " big time coaches" you speak of?

Ok 51 you win.  Let's go with Idzik and revisit this conversation in a couple of years.  I'm sure you're right, he's the next Ron Wolf.  

Never said he's the next Ron Wolf. I SAID I don't know what he is yet. My crystal ball doesn't work as well as yours.

Well obviously he has done enough to earn your trust and confidence. So much so that he deserves more time. So your crystal ball must work far better than mine to see Idzik's potential greatness at 1-7. I hope you're right.

LIJETFAN wrote:Well obviously he has done enough to earn your trust and confidence.  So much so that he deserves more time.  So your crystal ball must work far better than mine to see Idzik's potential greatness at 1-7.    I hope you're right.  

no, after 24 games, he's an incomplete. IMO, more evaluation is needed. like seeng the players he drafted get off IR and show what they can/can't do. like having his own hand picked coach and see if that staff can get more out of the personnel we already have. who knows, maybe the new staff will even be able to develop players outside of defensive lineman which hasn't happened around here in ages. out of curiosity, when did you want to be done with Rex? He hasn't produced since 2010. It seems that some guys are given the benefit of the doubt and others get the mob mentality. i must admit, media trolls like Mehta want Idzik out so bad that he's quite intriguing to me.

LIJETFAN wrote:Well obviously he has done enough to earn your trust and confidence.  So much so that he deserves more time.  So your crystal ball must work far better than mine to see Idzik's potential greatness at 1-7.    I hope you're right.  

No crystal ball is needed for me to make this statement. No GM is perfect find your favorite GM and research him you will see his fair share of misses. Any GM Idzik included needs a minimum of 4 years to be fairly judged. Any firm conclusions made before then are premature IMO

Superman55 wrote:

Old#15 wrote:With all due respects, its not entirely his mess.  He inherited a colossal mess with a bare cupboard and a cap nightmare.  Granted every move hasn't been good, but how much of what we are now witnessing can be attributed to the effects of miserable player development, little or no homegrown talent from the previous 4 pre-Idzik drafts, player misuse and generally poor coaching.  I think that the fact that we have such a poor base or poorly coached base of talent on this roster puts way too much pressure on 22 year old draftees to contribute immediately at the level that some of us expect.  

He's had 20 draft picks and $50 mill in cap space to spend, over half the roster is his mess.  No free passes in this grown men industry.

And the players not his mess are names like Harris, Mangold, Brick, Pace, Snacks, Kendrick Ellis, Douzable, Walls, Coples, some guy named Mo Wilkerson, Demario Davis, Powell, Kerley, and Cumberland.  Somehow I dont feel the players he inherited are the problem...

Agreed on this. At this point, Idzik's personnel moves have rated a D. He sabotaged the head coach this offseason.

That Rich Eisen rant is priceless. Could not have said it any better.

Here's a good read comparing the Chiefs after 2012 to the current Jets. The article also brings up a number of points I've made including how luck plays a role in aquiring a franchise qb.




http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/02/sports/football/to-rebuild-jets-can-use-chiefs-blueprint.html?_r=0

I must say, although I'm entirely on the side of football51's argument, it's a good debate between him and LIJETSFAN.

Well done, Gents. And nice job keeping it classy. I hate it when the name-calling starts.

In any position there are management expectations, ability to execute the functions that make up the position, hire's competency and a period of time to evaluate the hire.

When we hire someone there are goals and objects that the person being hired must or should execute.  What were the expectations for the JETS GM (clean up the cap mess, build a winning team), what was and is the goal- win the SB (I would add that Woody agreed to build it thru the draft - does this mean a 3-5 year plan - thus the hire), look over the organization and where you feel it needs changes - make them.  


I don't intend to list the things that all of you have listed already... what I will say is the one thing none of us know is what the evaluation period is and what criteria Woody is using to judge progress. Another words, how  is he as the owner measuring progress?  IN the NFL the baseline - as far as I know - is W-L record, regardless of weather your rebuilding, building, etc.  That is what all teams get judge by .  

My point is we have no clue what Woody's plan is (assumes he has one)  has expressed behind closed doors but I am pretty dam sure he is not a happy camper with the results so far for the entire team, not just the GM's execution or lack thereof.  

Who is to blame? For me its everyone players, coaches, FO and the owner...