The Race for the 2015 number one overall draft pick

Five teams are at 2-11.  Lets be honest, if there was any year to tank a season, these five teams got the memo. IMHO, there is one team out of these five that doesn't need Marcus Mariota just for the mere fact that they already drafted their franchise QB in the 1st round last year in Blake Bortles.

In saying so, the other four teams if they are fortunate enough to have the luxury of selecting number one, will ultimately go with the best player on the board that will not only sell tickets, but turn their respective putrid organization the other way. Marcus Mariota will be an intensely intriguing athlete that team will want to build around for years to come.  Yes, he's that good.

As it stands right now, The New York Jets select 4rth overall, thanks to losing to the Minnesota Vikings earlier today.  The team that has the 1st pick now belongs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That is absolutely not good news for us Jets fans at all.
The Bucs are in dire need of a franchise QB just like we are.  The only chance out of their remaining schedule for them to get a win is coming up this week against the Carolina Panthers.  Carolina is as erratic as they come.  The following two weeks are against Green Bay and New Orleans.  Both at Tampa Bay.  I guess New Orleans can be had as well after the shellacking they took from the Panthers today.

The Tennessee Titans have the 2nd overall pick. Unless they beat us this coming week and it is a huge possibility that may occur. The Titans will not start Zach Mettenberger and will start Jake Locker, who by the way is auditioning to play for another team next year.  Locker had his way with this Jets defense last year and as dejected as the Jets locker room have been, i see no different outcome.
their final games will be the Jaguars and Colts.


The Jacksonville Jaguars hold the #3 overall pick.  This is a team that is the fascinating wild card that may in fact play into the Jets favor.  If the Jets win next week then they will fall out of the race because these other teams wont win more than
one game the rest of the way.  Yet if the Jags regain the top pick, it will be interesting to see to what lengths Woody Johnson would go in order to trade up and draft an electric franchise QB that will put bodies back into the seats of MetLife stadium. I Honestly wouldn't be shocked if we give up an RG3 ransom of 2 future first round picks and then some for him.  IMHO, he is well worth it.  It's time to start taking some well calculated risks.
Jags next three:  Ravens, Titans and Texans

The Raiders dropped from 1st overall to our previous position of #5th overall due to them having played the hardest schedule of that 2-14 group.
Up coming games: Chiefs, Bills Broncos.


The Jets must continue to lose folks. This Geno Smith experiment failed drastically.  It's time to turn the page with a new coaching staff and a new signal caller.  Preferably the best one in this years draft named marcus Mariota.

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:Five teams are at 2-11.  Lets be honest, if there was any year to tank a season, these five teams got the memo. IMHO, there is one team out of these five that doesn't need Marcus Mariota just for the mere fact that they already drafted their franchise QB in the 1st round last year in Blake Bortles.

I doubt the Raiders will spend their 1st on a QB. They have to like the way Carr is playing.

Tampa still has a game at Carolina and a game home vs New Orleans (sandwiching home vs GB) which are both winnable games (particularly within division). Hopefully they win one, if not both of those.

Raiders have three games vs winning teams left (KC, Buffalo, and Denver). They will probably lose out, but their strength of schedule will stay higher than ours (thus giving us the tiebreaker).

Jacksonville and Tennessee still have a game vs each other to play (week 16 @Jax), so one of those teams will have to finish with at least 3 wins (barring the unlikely tie, of course)

If the last three weeks go like so:

Bucs: L @CAR, L vs GB, W vs NO, finish 3-13
Titans: W vs Jets, L @JAX, L vs IND, finish 3-13
Raiders: L @KC, L vs BUF, L @DEN, finish 2-14
Jaguars: L @BAL, W vs TEN, L @HOU, finish 3-13
Jets: L @TEN, L vs NE, L @MIA, finish finish 2-14

We would have the first overall pick because of our having a weaker schedule than Oakland.

GratefulJet wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:Five teams are at 2-11.  Lets be honest, if there was any year to tank a season, these five teams got the memo. IMHO, there is one team out of these five that doesn't need Marcus Mariota just for the mere fact that they already drafted their franchise QB in the 1st round last year in Blake Bortles.

I doubt the Raiders will spend their 1st on a QB. They have to like the way Carr is playing.

+1 I agree

The only thing that could change this is if the new regime specifically doesn't like Carr for some reason. However, he's been playing well enough that I think he'll stick around.

GratefulJet wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:Five teams are at 2-11.  Lets be honest, if there was any year to tank a season, these five teams got the memo. IMHO, there is one team out of these five that doesn't need Marcus Mariota just for the mere fact that they already drafted their franchise QB in the 1st round last year in Blake Bortles.

I doubt the Raiders will spend their 1st on a QB. They have to like the way Carr is playing.

They're 2-11. Any new coach that comes in, especially if they have the #1 overall pick will choose to have his own signal caller over a year previous 2nd round pick.
Mariota has much more upside than Derek carr. Le;s just hope they stay put at 5 and don't move up.

jamesfyo123 wrote:Tampa still has a game at Carolina and a game home vs New Orleans (sandwiching home vs GB) which are both winnable games (particularly within division). Hopefully they win one, if not both of those.

Raiders have three games vs winning teams left (KC, Buffalo, and Denver). They will probably lose out, but their strength of schedule will stay higher than ours (thus giving us the tiebreaker).

Jacksonville and Tennessee still have a game vs each other to play (week 16 @Jax), so one of those teams will have to finish with at least 3 wins (barring the unlikely tie, of course)

If the last three weeks go like so:

Bucs: L @CAR, L vs GB, W vs NO, finish 3-13
Titans: W vs Jets, L @JAX, L vs IND, finish 3-13
Raiders: L @KC, L vs BUF, L @DEN, finish 2-14
Jaguars: L @BAL, W vs TEN, L @HOU, finish 3-13
Jets: L @TEN, L vs NE, L @MIA, finish finish 2-14

We would have the first overall pick because of our having a weaker schedule than Oakland.

Good job. That is a very plausible scenario. TB can certainly beat one of Carolina or New Orleans. Jags have to win one more game, whether against Tenn or Houston. Main thing is, we have to lose out. There's just no way we get the top overall pick unless we take care of our own business.

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:

GratefulJet wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:Five teams are at 2-11.  Lets be honest, if there was any year to tank a season, these five teams got the memo. IMHO, there is one team out of these five that doesn't need Marcus Mariota just for the mere fact that they already drafted their franchise QB in the 1st round last year in Blake Bortles.

I doubt the Raiders will spend their 1st on a QB. They have to like the way Carr is playing.

They're 2-11.  Any new coach that comes in, especially if they have the #1 overall pick will choose to have his own signal caller over a year previous 2nd round pick.
Mariota has much more upside than Derek carr.  Le;s just hope they stay put at 5 and don't move up.

I don't agree in this situation. Carr is good enough, and Mariota questionable enough because of the offense he comes from, that Oakland could and probably should use the pick to patch another, bigger hole than QB. In fact, they should probably trade out of the slot and accumulate more picks. That to me is a more likely scenario for them than drafting Mariota.

GratefulJet wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:Five teams are at 2-11.  Lets be honest, if there was any year to tank a season, these five teams got the memo. IMHO, there is one team out of these five that doesn't need Marcus Mariota just for the mere fact that they already drafted their franchise QB in the 1st round last year in Blake Bortles.

I doubt the Raiders will spend their 1st on a QB. They have to like the way Carr is playing.

If they like the way Carr is playing they will ransom the pick to someone that wants Mariota or Winston..they wont pick 1

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:

GratefulJet wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:Five teams are at 2-11.  Lets be honest, if there was any year to tank a season, these five teams got the memo. IMHO, there is one team out of these five that doesn't need Marcus Mariota just for the mere fact that they already drafted their franchise QB in the 1st round last year in Blake Bortles.

I doubt the Raiders will spend their 1st on a QB. They have to like the way Carr is playing.

They're 2-11.  Any new coach that comes in, especially if they have the #1 overall pick will choose to have his own signal caller over a year previous 2nd round pick.
Mariota has much more upside than Derek carr.  Le;s just hope they stay put at 5 and don't move up.

...ummmm, did you see Carr today?  No, they arent drafting a QB to replace Carr and no, Mariota doesn't have more upside than Carr.  Carr already has better footwork, understanding of defenses, and played in a pro offense.

Mariota needs to sit a season, like Kapernick.  If he plays right away, see RG3.  I like the kid, but his single read spread offense hasn't done him any favors preparing him for the NFL.  

I think his work ethic will get Mariota where he needs to be successful, and I like the kid, but pretending he's NFL ready is not the case.  

Superman55 wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:

GratefulJet wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:Five teams are at 2-11.  Lets be honest, if there was any year to tank a season, these five teams got the memo. IMHO, there is one team out of these five that doesn't need Marcus Mariota just for the mere fact that they already drafted their franchise QB in the 1st round last year in Blake Bortles.

I doubt the Raiders will spend their 1st on a QB. They have to like the way Carr is playing.

They're 2-11.  Any new coach that comes in, especially if they have the #1 overall pick will choose to have his own signal caller over a year previous 2nd round pick.
Mariota has much more upside than Derek carr.  Le;s just hope they stay put at 5 and don't move up.

...ummmm, did you see Carr today?  No, they arent drafting a QB to replace Carr and no, Mariota doesn't have more upside than Carr.  Carr already has better footwork, understanding of defenses, and played in a pro offense.

Mariota needs to sit a season, like Kapernick.  If he plays right away, see RG3.  I like the kid, but his single read spread offense hasn't done him any favors preparing him for the NFL.  

I think his work ethic will get Mariota where he needs to be successful, and I like the kid, but pretending he's NFL ready is not the case.  

Ummm, did you see how horrible he looked vs the Rams last week? Mariota will beast it when he gets a shot in the NFL. He's in no way a "project" like Geno was. the Raiders are 2-11 and the new regime will have no problem supplanting a 2nd round pick with a stud at the position.
If the Raiders land the #1 pick especially if Harbaugh is there, there's no question he chooses Marcus.
As far as you thinking hes not NFL ready due to the spread system he runs at Oregon, i'am just gonna politely state that we can agree to disagree on that one. Strongly agree to disagree.

The fact Carr was a 2nd round choice is irrelevant. The question is how they evaluate his ceiling now that they've had him for a season as the starter. Whoever they hire as HC will have to justify spending a high pick on a QB when they've gotten some pretty good performances out of Carr in his rookie season. That's a riskier path than trading down a bit and grabbing a couple of strong talents at other positions of greater need. No incoming HC is going to prefer to draft Mariota and create an instant QB controversy.

I don't say any of that because I don't like Mariota. In fact, I like him a lot. But not for the Raiders. They have other needs--they're 2-11 for many reasons, and QB isn't first among them.

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:

Superman55 wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:

GratefulJet wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:Five teams are at 2-11.  Lets be honest, if there was any year to tank a season, these five teams got the memo. IMHO, there is one team out of these five that doesn't need Marcus Mariota just for the mere fact that they already drafted their franchise QB in the 1st round last year in Blake Bortles.

I doubt the Raiders will spend their 1st on a QB. They have to like the way Carr is playing.

They're 2-11.  Any new coach that comes in, especially if they have the #1 overall pick will choose to have his own signal caller over a year previous 2nd round pick.
Mariota has much more upside than Derek carr.  Le;s just hope they stay put at 5 and don't move up.

...ummmm, did you see Carr today?  No, they arent drafting a QB to replace Carr and no, Mariota doesn't have more upside than Carr.  Carr already has better footwork, understanding of defenses, and played in a pro offense.

Mariota needs to sit a season, like Kapernick.  If he plays right away, see RG3.  I like the kid, but his single read spread offense hasn't done him any favors preparing him for the NFL.  

I think his work ethic will get Mariota where he needs to be successful, and I like the kid, but pretending he's NFL ready is not the case.  

Ummm, did you see how horrible he looked vs the Rams last week?   Mariota will beast it when he gets a shot in the NFL.  He's in no way a "project" like Geno was. the Raiders are 2-11 and the new regime will have no problem supplanting a 2nd round pick with a stud at the position.
If the Raiders land the #1 pick especially if Harbaugh is there, there's no question he chooses Marcus.
As far as you thinking hes not NFL ready due to the spread system he runs at Oregon, i'am just gonna politely state that we can agree to disagree on that one.  Strongly agree to disagree.

We don't have to strongly disagree. We all love our college prospects, and if you feel Mariota is a polished NFL ready passer, that's fine. I think the kid needs a lot of work. We'll see next spring, whoever gets him.

On the other side of the argument, Cy has a hard one for Winston, who throws an INT 1 of every 10 passes beyond 5 yards because the kid cant throw a spiral. But he loves him, I just don't see that working out in the NFL...but he loves his guy.

I just see natural passers in Carr and Mettenberger that I don't feel QB coaches, scouts, and teams will want to hit reset buttons on after 1 year for the prospects in this draft. You can disagree.

I'd like to add Mariota and would be fine with that; but if we add him, I'd like to add a vet to play in front of him a year. Its okay if you think Mariota is the next Luck or Wilson. I think he's a prospect that will require patience. I dont dislike him, but I dont see Andrew Luck or Wilson when he plays, I see the single read option he runs that has a designed run baked into almost every pass play that wont be the case in the NFL.

But, I'm patient enough to just look forward to seeing what happens when he plays Winston. we'll see the kid develop over time and see where he lands...but I dont see Peyton or Luck jaw dropping shocked if he isn't a top NFL QB when all is said and done. But maybe you're right. We'll see.

Superman55 wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:

Superman55 wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:

GratefulJet wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:Five teams are at 2-11.  Lets be honest, if there was any year to tank a season, these five teams got the memo. IMHO, there is one team out of these five that doesn't need Marcus Mariota just for the mere fact that they already drafted their franchise QB in the 1st round last year in Blake Bortles.

I doubt the Raiders will spend their 1st on a QB. They have to like the way Carr is playing.

They're 2-11.  Any new coach that comes in, especially if they have the #1 overall pick will choose to have his own signal caller over a year previous 2nd round pick.
Mariota has much more upside than Derek carr.  Le;s just hope they stay put at 5 and don't move up.

...ummmm, did you see Carr today?  No, they arent drafting a QB to replace Carr and no, Mariota doesn't have more upside than Carr.  Carr already has better footwork, understanding of defenses, and played in a pro offense.

Mariota needs to sit a season, like Kapernick.  If he plays right away, see RG3.  I like the kid, but his single read spread offense hasn't done him any favors preparing him for the NFL.  

I think his work ethic will get Mariota where he needs to be successful, and I like the kid, but pretending he's NFL ready is not the case.  

Ummm, did you see how horrible he looked vs the Rams last week?   Mariota will beast it when he gets a shot in the NFL.  He's in no way a "project" like Geno was. the Raiders are 2-11 and the new regime will have no problem supplanting a 2nd round pick with a stud at the position.
If the Raiders land the #1 pick especially if Harbaugh is there, there's no question he chooses Marcus.
As far as you thinking hes not NFL ready due to the spread system he runs at Oregon, i'am just gonna politely state that we can agree to disagree on that one.  Strongly agree to disagree.

We don't have to strongly disagree.  We all love our college prospects, and if you feel Mariota is a polished NFL ready passer, that's fine.  I think the kid needs a lot of work.  We'll see next spring, whoever gets him.

On the other side of the argument, Cy has a hard one for Winston, who throws an INT 1 of every 10 passes beyond 5 yards because the kid cant throw a spiral.  But he loves him, I just don't see that working out in the NFL...but he loves his guy.

I just see natural passers in Carr and Mettenberger that I don't feel QB coaches, scouts, and teams will want to hit reset buttons on after 1 year for the prospects in this draft.  You can disagree.

I'd like to add Mariota and would be fine with that; but if we add him, I'd like to add a vet to play in front of him a year.   Its okay if you think Mariota is the next Luck or Wilson.  I think he's a prospect that will require patience.  I dont dislike him, but I dont see Andrew Luck or Wilson when he plays, I see the single read option he runs that has a designed run baked into almost every pass play that wont be the case in the NFL.

But, I'm patient enough to just look forward to seeing what happens when he plays Winston.  we'll see the kid develop over time and see where he lands...but I dont see Peyton or Luck jaw dropping shocked if he isn't a top NFL QB when all is said and done.  But maybe you're right.  We'll see.

Well Stated 55.
The player that reminds me so much of with Mariota is a kid from BYU named Steve Young.  The guy was athletic as they came, and he was just eager to play and he lit it up in the USFL before going to the Bucs. He had all the tools and the one aspect of his game was his willingness to be patient to understand the NFL once he got his opportunity when he supplanted Joe Montana.

Hey, maybe the guy needs time like Young did.  Though i feel when it's all said and done, Mariota will be one of the finer QB's in the NFL that has come in a long time.  Not the greatest, but a special kind of player that just knows how to win.

I sincerely hope the Jets try anything and everything to land him.  IMHO, he's that good of a QB. The thing is, if either Tennessee or Tampa have the top pick, i feel they will also understand that as well.  No way they reliquish the top pick under any circumstances and pass up Marcus.

We just gotta lose brother.  We must lose in order to win.

The player Mariotta most reminds of is RGIII.

Sarge wrote:The player Mariotta most reminds of is RGIII.

I see that too, which I'd be worried about if he didn't have a better work ethic and approach to the game. RG3's problem is he's about RG3 (Gruden has said it publicaly, even when he doesnt play he comes out of the locker room early and makes a spectacle of himself, its kind of shameful...he was even at the Lil Wayne and Drake concert a couple rows in front of me during the preseason, and the show became about him...he's a huge self promoter).

I dont see that in Mariota, I think he'll work hard, but it will be a tough adjustment, just like RG3...I agree with that. He's more RG3 than Luck or Wilson, IMO. That doesnt mean in time he can't become "like Steve Young." But it took Young a long time too.

The Titans will end up Mariota, then, TB hopefully grabs Winston, and we grab? Cooper,Peat.

I believe Peat has declared he will return to Stanford for his senior year of college.

I honestly think that by the time the draft rolls around Winston could be right there with Mariota as potential #1 and may surpass him.  The head to head in the CFB semifinal will be key #1, and then Winston will throw those tight spirals in workouts that will make scouts wet themselves.  If FSU gets into final with Bama and wins, then I think the roar will be deafening. I also think he will interview well enough to convince teams that his earlier transgressions can be chalked up to immaturity, and that he is past that.  I'm not necessarily convinced that the above will happen, but if it does things could get really interesting.

The Wicker Man wrote:The Titans will end up Mariota, then, TB hopefully grabs Winston, and we grab? Cooper,Peat.

A lot of people including Florio believe TE a titans are going to take QB now. That really surprises me.

I'd go another direction in the draft, maybe even trade downs few spots, and draft another area (OL, CB, or OLB) and look to acquire Mettenberger or Foles.

Superman55 wrote:

The Wicker Man wrote:The Titans will end up Mariota, then, TB hopefully grabs Winston, and we grab? Cooper,Peat.

A lot of people including Florio believe TE a titans are going to take QB now.  That really surprises me.

I'd go another direction in the draft, maybe even trade downs few spots, and draft another area (OL, CB, or OLB) and look to acquire Mettenberger or Foles.

That may be the right approach as we really need to re-stock behind Brick, and one of the stud LTs should be there at 6 -10.

If the Raiders want to dump Carr and take Mariota, I'd offer a package for Carr.

But I do not see that happening at all.

SackExchange wrote:If the Raiders want to dump Carr and take Mariota, I'd offer a package for Carr.

But I do not see that happening at all.

I dont see it happening. The Raiders have surprisingly played a lot better under Sparano, outside of the Rams game.

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:

I Honestly wouldn't be shocked if we give up an RG3 ransom of 2 future first round picks and then some for him.  IMHO, he is well worth it.

I bet you the Redskins thought RGIII was well worth it at the time...

Sarge wrote:The player Mariotta most reminds of is RGIII.

I'am sorry, i just don't see that. I always saw RG3 as a run first style & would only lock on to 1 receiver and thats about it.
Mariota has every tool as a QB to be next level. Sure, every QB needs time to excel. That has alot to do on who is the coach next year and what kind of people he will be surrounded with.

I just look at him and feel he's Steve Young 2.0. Young had so much potential yet when he went to Tampa Bay, he was surrounded by a plethora of a losing environment. Coaches that didn't value harnessing his true attributes. Then Bill Walsh traded for him and the rest was history.

Mariota has that kind of skill level, mental stature and playmaking ability that is worth trading up for.

Wide receivers can be had at any point, but a franchise QB comes every so often.

hobson54 wrote:

NYJETSDAN16 wrote:

I Honestly wouldn't be shocked if we give up an RG3 ransom of 2 future first round picks and then some for him.  IMHO, he is well worth it.

I bet you the Redskins thought RGIII was well worth it at the time...

Every trade has their own history to be attached to it.  Some of them work and some don't.  We will never know unless we do it.  Trades happen all the time.  How about the Eli Manning trade, That IMHO worked out tremendously with 2 super rings.

Woody MUST make a statement for next year. That begins with an exciting signal caller that has franchise potential,which is well within our finger tips.
The team has more than enough cap space to fill voids, yet the void that has haunted us the most is the one i'am mostly advocating for us to trade up and draft.  We can afford to trade picks this year. Especially if Idzik is around. He blew 10 out of 12 picks last year. Atleast in '15 he can draft a player with actual ability in Mariota.