Winston a possible No. 1 pick
But Jameis will face many questions about his maturity during draft process
Updated: January 7, 2015, 12:58 PM ET
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
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Jameis Winston To Enter NFL Draft
George Whitfield Jr. and Todd McShay react to the news that Seminoles QB Jameis Winston will enter the NFL draft.
Tags: NCF, Florida State Seminoles, NFL, NFL Draft
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Is Jameis Winston Best QB In NFL Draft?
Jameis Winston is going to be a big story this spring. But there are going to be people using phrases like "unprecedented" surrounding him as he enters the draft process, and those will be wrong.
For instance, some will say no quarterback will ever face the media scrutiny that Winston is about to face during the draft process. But Johnny Manziel faced it last year. Cam Newton faced it a few years ago. Some will say it's weird to think Winston could go No. 1 coming off what was clearly a down year for him statistically. But Jadeveon Clowney did just that ... again, last year. Some will say it's inevitable that quarterbacks will rise, and a team is certain to get desperate and take Winston or Marcus Mariota No. 1. But two years ago, plenty of teams needed QBs, and a left tackle from Central Michigan went No. 1, and a QB I had a third-round grade on (E.J. Manuel) was the only guy to land in Round 1. It's not an apples to apples talent comparison, but the point remains: when it comes to the NFL draft, and to teams looking to draft the potential face of their franchise, very little is unprecedented.
Here's what they'll consider with Winston, and where I think he could go.
Winston is the most advanced QB in this class.
While NFL teams will have major questions about Winston's makeup and his off-field issues, between the lines he shows the ability to anticipate, read defenses, get through his progressions, utilize fabulous pocket sense and footwork, and deliver the ball all over the field with pace. When teams ask Winston to digest schemes and concepts and show them things on the whiteboard, they're going to see a sharp football mind. His football acumen was a reason he was so successful as a redshirt freshman -- when teams tried to dial up the pressure, Winston was able to see it and take advantage. He processes things quickly. In terms of an ability to transition quickly to the NFL and deal with more complexity in schemes, Winston is going to get high marks. When you factor in the intangibles it's easy to rate Mariota ahead of Winston, but there is still plenty of skepticism about whether Mariota would be as good if the system at Oregon wasn't such a perfect fit for his skill set.
Those interceptions are a major concern -- but again, not an unprecedented total.
We know all INTs aren't created equal. And it was clear this year if you watched Winston consistently that he wasn't always in sync with his wide receivers - he lost Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw to the NFL, two of his favorite targets. But a number of his 18 INTs this year were forced throws and simply inaccurate, and I think he actually regressed in terms of his willingness to just check it down and not always look for the bigger play. He'll need to continue to improve his ball placement, because it's simply not elite. And he needs to be be better about forcing the ball into tight windows. That said, I do think Winston makes mistakes of aggression because he can make pretty much every throw and always sees opportunities. And don't let someone tell you the INTs are a non-starter. After all, Matt Ryan threw 19 of them in his final season at Boston College before going No. 3 overall.
Durability will be a major plus.
There are always exceptions to the rule on looking for size (Russell Wilson is certain to be one for years), but Winston has an ideal frame at 6-4 and 235 pounds. He's actually similar to Andrew Luck as a mobile guy who is built to take punishment. The assumption of durability has a great deal of value.
The off-field maturity issues will be fair game, as they should be.
I've been as hard on Winston as anyone in this area. I've said I don't think he gets it. I've said he has to grow up. Teams are absolutely right to make these questions the focus of their interviews with him, and I don't think Winston can simply point to his youth, because plenty of other guys at his position in particular have been able to deal with success and stay out of trouble off the field. Could the maturity questions cost him the chance to go in the top five? Absolutely.
He's not a lock for the top five.
Both the Buccaneers (No. 1) and the Titans (No. 2) could use a talent upgrade at QB. But there have been myriad cases over the last few years of teams not taking a QB early if they don't think he can be better than what they have on the roster from Day 1. The Chiefs felt they were just average QB play from being good when Andy Reid got there. They made a move for Alex Smith rather than relying on the draft, and they experienced a big turnaround. The Texans needed a QB at draft time last year, but Bill O'Brien and the front office weren't certain a rookie QB would be better than what they had on the roster. They also experienced a big turnaround. A need at QB doesn't guarantee the draft will be where that need is met. Beyond the top two, are we certain the Jets (No. 6) would want to bring Winston to the New York market? In almost every case of obvious QB need, you can imagine a reason why they'd pass on Winston, and that's even before Mariota comes into it.
At this point, Winston is a possibility at No. 1. But after the season he had, on the field and off, the variance right now feels pretty high. He's a special talent, but whether he'll impress teams in interviews will be crucial, and any other off-field issues could send his stock into a dive.